EU Drug Market: Drivers and facilitators — Technology and innovation

Innovations across a range of areas have become key enablers for criminal networks throughout the drug supply chain. These include new methods and techniques used to produce drugs, yielding higher outputs, products with higher potency or purity, and novel consumer products; and continuous advancements in the digital sphere, as seen in the ongoing adaptation of online drug distribution models.

Innovation in drug production and supply

Although a number of different factors affect levels of drug production, recent innovations in production techniques and equipment have resulted in higher outputs, products with higher potency or purity, and a broader range of consumer products.

For example, innovations in agronomic techniques and equipment have been applied to coca plants in Latin America, as well as industrial cannabis cultivation sites in Europe (see EU Drug Market: Cannabis). In Europe, such innovations are linked to higher cannabis herb and resin outputs, higher-potency cannabis and a more diverse range of cannabis consumer products. Another key innovation in cannabis production is the continuous emergence of new semi-synthetic cannabinoids, which are made by processing naturally occurring cannabinoids such as cannabidiol (see EU Drug Market: Cannabis).

Innovations in cocaine production appear to have contributed to an oversupply of cocaine in the global supply chain (see EU Drug Market: Cocaine). Among the innovations is the re-oxidation of cocaine base, which is a sophisticated method used in Colombia that increases the efficiency of cocaine production. Collaboration between European and Latin American networks to produce cocaine in Europe, using chemicals and equipment of higher quality, is also driving innovation in this area.

Innovations in methamphetamine production are also taking place in Europe, particularly in the resolution-racemisation-recycling (RRR) process (see EU Drug Market: Methamphetamine), which has increased the efficiency and output of methamphetamine production. Collaboration and knowledge exchange between Mexican and European criminal networks is also driving innovation and poses a key threat.

While amphetamine production appears to be relatively stable and high in Europe, there have been recent signals of changes in methods (see EU Drug Market: Amphetamine). In particular, the so-called nitrostyrene method may become more prominent in the future, reflecting the adaptability and resilience of synthetic drug producers, who change their methods in response to (or in anticipation of) changes in the availability of chemicals. Importantly, the nitrostyrene method can be used to circumvent producers’ reliance on benzyl methyl ketone (BMK) and its alternative chemicals, underscoring the continuous innovation seen in the use of new chemicals and precursors for illicit drug production (see Section Precursor innovation).

Precursor innovation

Innovations in the use of chemicals and precursors have led to transformational developments in illicit synthetic drug production. In Europe, producers have shifted from the use of highly controlled drug precursors to the use of non-regulated chemicals that can be easily converted to those precursors, or even chemicals that can be directly transformed into various synthetic drugs (see EU Drug Market: Methamphetamine). As well as confirming that drug producers are becoming more adept at borrowing techniques from the pharmaceutical industry and applying them to the illicit drugs trade in order to evade detection, these developments present a challenge to the international precursor control regime.

A potential future threat in this area is the application of artificial intelligence and related technologies such as large language models (Europol, 2023a) to identify new chemicals and molecules that could be used in illicit drug production (see Box Artificial intelligence). Importantly, the pharmaceutical industry currently uses artificial intelligence in the drug discovery and development process (Qureshi et al., 2023).

Chemical masking of drugs

There have also been innovations in the concealment of drugs using chemical masking. This involves modifying the drug into a new substance, which is harder to detect by customs and law enforcement agencies. For example, producers chemically conceal cocaine hydrochloride, cocaine base and cocaine paste in carrier materials (such as charcoal, coco pulp and plastics). The extraction of the cocaine from these carrier materials usually takes place in dedicated ‘secondary extraction facilities’ in Europe. The cocaine extracted from carrier materials in base form must subsequently be transformed into cocaine hydrochloride, either in the same facility or in a dedicated ‘base to hydrochloride’ illicit laboratory (see EU Drug Market: Cocaine).

Another new modus operandi is the smuggling of heroin dissolved in liquids along the main trafficking routes for Afghan opiates to Europe (see EU Drug Market: Heroin and other opioids). A number of seizures between 2020 and 2021 involved several hundred litres of heroin in liquid form (typically concealed in the fuel tanks of vehicles) and intended for countries in eastern Europe, the Baltic region, Türkiye and western Europe. However, so far, no liquid heroin seizures have been reported in the European Union.

Digitally enabled drug markets

Surface web

The surface web (see Figure Surface web, deep web and darknet), including legitimate e-commerce platforms and social media, is an important medium for the sale of new psychoactive substances (NPS), misused medicines (including falsified and counterfeit medicines), illicit drugs, drug precursors and related chemicals. Large and highly flexible criminal structures have been identified in relation to online NPS shops in particular. An example of Member States efforts focussed on restricting the use of the surface web in NPS distribution is the multi-agency approach taken in Germany – supported by the EU Internal Security Fund DrAIN (Disruption and Analysis of the Internet NPS Market) project (Bayerisches Landeskriminalamt, 2021). While this has resulted in the closure of a number of online NPS shops, it is unclear whether German retailers have stopped selling these substances altogether or have relocated to darknet markets or social media. Further monitoring, analysis and investigation are required to determine how long-lasting this effect will be.

Social networks and instant messenger apps

Drug sales on social media platforms appear to be gaining in prominence, but there is relatively little research exploring their place in the wider technology-based drug markets (see Box European Web Survey on Drugs: information on online purchases). Furthermore, given the convenience and ease of use of these platforms, there is potential for them to amplify the various risks associated with drug use (Oksanen et al., 2021) (see Box Motivations for buying and selling drugs on social media platforms).

Social media includes a wide range of digital platforms designed for communication. These include image-sharing platforms, instant messaging apps and online forums. There are different levels of drug market openness across these platforms, ranging from public, where vendors make their profile publicly available, to private, where drug-related content is restricted to pre-screened users.

Most social media platforms appear to be used as marketplaces for illicit drugs (see Box Online ethnography: examining drug distribution on social media platforms in Europe). Yet there are significant challenges involved in designing and conducting research in this area: social media content can be temporary, fragmented and rapidly changing; and messages are almost always encrypted or otherwise difficult to access. The terminology used also changes rapidly, and, unlike darknet markets – which often have a global reach – dealers on social media are often more local, with a regional or city focus. As such, research into these activities may require language processing.

Vendors on social media use captions, hashtags and emojis to enable potential buyers to search for drugs (Demant and Bakken, 2019). Geographical areas of operation may also be indicated to allow potential buyers to identify local vendors (Moeller, 2022). Vendors are then contacted, either through the messaging function of the platform or via instant messaging apps, to conduct the transaction. While some transactions are conducted in-person and paid for in cash, most use online payment systems, with the product being shipped to the buyer’s door or to a pick-up point (Demant and Bakken, 2019).

Given the local dimension of social media drug markets and their interaction with offline markets, they have the potential to influence the operation of ‘street’ markets. Future research would need to investigate the intersection between digitally enabled drug markets and traditional ‘street’ markets, for example, by exploring the risks of being conned, robbed or arrested. This could inform appropriate policy decisions and responses (van der Sanden et al., 2022).

Use of social media to recruit low-level drug market facilitators

In addition to drug sales, social media is also used to recruit low-level drug market facilitators. Accounts have been identified on Snapchat that are dedicated to the recruitment of individuals for drug-related tasks, including drug smuggling and cross-border drug transportation. Using multiple notifications (‘stories’ or direct messages) per day, they appear to offer considerable sums of money to individuals willing to transport drugs across international borders (see Screenshot A Snapchat notice from a drug-dealing account seeking to recruit a ‘drug mule’) or to make their personal bank account available for large transactions or cash withdrawals (‘money muling’) (see Screenshot Snapchat notices from drug-dealing accounts offering money for drug-related services) (Demant and Bjerre Aagesen, 2022). Money muling has been identified in some Member States as an emerging method of money laundering (Europol, 2023b).

Darknet markets

Darknet markets have been active for more than a decade. They enable buyers and sellers to conduct transactions online with a high level of anonymity. These markets are based on a combination of digital technologies, namely anonymous communication technology (e.g. Tor – Dingledine et al., 2004) and pseudo-anonymous or anonymous payment systems (Nakamoto, 2009). These characteristics have made them attractive for buyers and sellers of illicit drugs. As such, it is important to understand darknet trends when developing both supply- and demand-side drug policies.

Darknet markets tend to be global and operate in English, although some are focused on a particular country or language group. Although sale and trade volumes on darknet markets have fluctuated over the years, reflecting the frequent entry into and exit from the ecosystem by multiple individual markets, the darknet market ecosystem is currently considered to be active, albeit at lower levels than previously observed. A number of factors, such as more frequent scams, voluntary closures and law enforcement activity, appear to have a considerable impact on drug supply via darknet markets.

Data from the monitoring period, 2020-2022, show a darknet market ecosystem characterised by high turnover and fragmentation. In recent years, many markets have been ‘exit-scammed’, whereby those in control accumulate customers’ funds and subsequently exit the darknet ecosystem without fulfilling orders, or have been taken down by law enforcement agencies. An example of this is Empire, a leading darknet market that stopped operations in August 2020, departing abruptly and failing to fulfil pending orders. However, in late 2021, a number of markets also voluntarily closed and exited in a relatively orderly fashion once they had achieved their profit objectives and without misleading their customers (including some of the largest such as WhiteHouse, Cannazon and Torrez). Numerous new markets also appeared but were mostly short-lived, creating a highly fragmented environment.

The darknet market ecosystem continues to consist of many short-lived markets (see Figure Darknet markets ecosystem: lifetime and reason for closure of over 150 global darknet markets offering drugs, sorted by date). Over the next five years, it is expected that this scene will continue to fragment. While some larger, multi-vendor, multi-commodity markets may survive, there will likely be an increasing number of vendor shops and smaller markets (see Box Vendor shops). International law enforcement therefore needs to focus on these smaller markets.

These ongoing developments underscore the dynamic nature of darknet markets – which evolve constantly to mitigate threats and exploit new opportunities – and their ability to introduce or adopt new technologies to evade interdiction. Enhanced monitoring capacity in this area, and targeted law enforcement action, is thus crucial to ensure that responses keep pace with developments (see Box Disrupting darknet ‘information hubs’).

Ongoing innovation in darknet markets, and their intersection with social media and surface web applications, has caused further complexity for monitoring and interdiction. For example, a vendor shop bot for direct sales – known as Televend – emerged in 2021, powered by the instant messaging app Telegram and supported by a Tor vendor panel (see Screenshot Televend: automated direct deals platform and Box Online drug sales automation).

References

Consult the list of references used in this module.

Source data

The source data for the figure Darknet markets ecosystem: lifetime and reason for closure of over 150 global darknet markets offering drugs, sorted by date may be found below. See also this data set in our Data catalogue.