Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Next Country To Leave EU Odds: Italy Tipped Ahead Of Greece And Austria

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Joe Short
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Next Country To Leave EU Odds: Italy Tipped Ahead Of Greece And Austria

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Betting sites are backing Italy to be the next country to leave the European Union but don’t expect a referendum on the subject any time soon, with a fresh outcome recently added to the politics betting market.

No state has left the EU since the UK broke away from the trading bloc in January 2020 and appetite for defecting is low.

Since then, the country has ridden a seemingly never-ending wave of problems over its new trading stance with the EU, has unseated two prime ministers, and has failed to bring political stability to Northern Ireland.


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Further issues over migration, food standards and trade agreements with other nations have exposed the difficulties of a European Union member quitting the bloc to go it alone.

So much so that betting firms now believe even Italy won’t push to exit the union in the near future, even if the country remains most likely to do so.

Next Country To Leave EU Outright Odds

Country Odds
No country to leave by 31 Dec 2025 1/7
Italy 8/1
Greece 10/1
Austria 12/1
Czech Republic 12/1
Poland 14/1
Hungary 16/1
Netherlands 20/1
Spain 20/1
France 20/1

EU Betting Latest

Bookmakers made an alternative option into the market on which country will next leave the EU. 

They suggest at odds of 1/7 that there is an 87.5% chance no country will opt to quit by 31 December 2025.

Meanwhile, Italy remains the most likely to exit the bloc were the country to hold a vote. 


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Italy has been the frontrunner ever since right-wing prime minister Giorgia Meloni was elected back in September 2022, although she has surprised many in Rome by forging a closer-than-expected relationship with the EU.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has also affected the odds. Hungary, for example, has shot up the list as prime minster Viktor Orban pits himself against Western leaders in opposition of Russian aggression. 

Poland, meanwhile, has dropped further down the list as the country forges even closer ties with the EU and Ukraine.

A wave of EU nations have agreed in recent months to send tanks, ammunition and medical supplies to Ukraine to help defend the country from Russia. 

This has seen the likes of Germany, Denmark and Sweden root themselves firmly within the bloc.

The union is being tested but it’s unlikely to witness fragmentation in the coming years due to Russia’s aggression. 

The EU, backed by America, remains a fairly solid entity but the bookies are always on the lookout for who could quit next.

Here, we look at which countries political betting sites think could leave the EU.

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No Exit By 2026

Bookies have plunged their odds on there being no fresh withdrawal from the EU before New Year’s Day 2026. It makes sense. 

Russia’s war in Ukraine has forced governments to think about national security over perceived notions of sovereignty, and the EU has largely bandied together. At 1/7 these odds are almost certainly only going to fall further.

Italy

Punters seeking to bet on the next EU country to leave the bloc have largely focused on Italy and Greece. Italy’s odds dropped in September when Meloni took power but since then they haven’t fallen any further. 

Meloni is playing a smart game and working within the EU to deliver her core goals around reducing migration in Italy. 

It is claimed the EU is “swinging to the right” but not to the extent that it will break up. Instead, right-wing leaders are figuring out it’s better to reshape the bloc in their image, instead of quitting it.


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Greece

Greece used to be the frontrunner in this market and punters have placed more bets on Greece leaving the EU (37%) than any other nation. 

However, centre-right prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who recently won the Greece election, wants the EU to help fund fencing to keep migrants out of the country. 

He needs the EU’s cash to uphold his policy pledges so won’t be angling for a dissolution of the bloc any time soon.

Austria

Third on the list of viable EU defectors is Austria, where date suggests three in 10 people would be open to leaving the bloc if given the vote. 

That has contributed to Austria’s odds being cut with new betting sites from 14/1 to a new price of 12/1

An increase pro-Russian politicians in Austria has tested the country’s resolve somewhat in recent months, and in March right wing MP’s walked out of parliament during a speech by Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky, claiming it affected the country’s neutrality.

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Czech Republic

Last year 54% of Czechs supported a clear “yes” to staying in the European Union, and in January the country voted for Petr Pavel in the presidential elections. 

Pavel is a former NATO military chair and has close ties to Europe. However, prime minister Andrej Babis leads the populist ANO 2011 party in the Czech parliament and there is simmering unrest about what the country gets from its EU membership. 

However, at 12/1 with betting apps it looks unlikely Czechia will be quitting the bloc any time soon.

Poland

Similarly, it’s almost inconceivable that Poland would ditch the trade and security protection of the EU when Russia is seeking to advance up to its borders. 

At 14/1 the bookies aren’t expecting Poland to go it alone. However, Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki has joined Hungary’s Orban in blocking the EU’s latest migration deal. 

This is by no means a red line for Poland but they are trying to exercise the strength they have.


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Hungary

While Poland seeks to influence the EU from within, there is a very real possibility Hungary walks from the bloc. 

The country is a net beneficiary to the tune of billions of euros from its membership with the EU but has clashed with Brussels over issues around homosexuality and LGBT rights

Orban isn’t happy with the EU’s efforts to restrain Hungarian populism through financial measures, and he is by no means embedded in the West’s camp when it comes to Russia. 

At 16/1 there’s a real change Hungary’s odds on leaving the EU fall soon.

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Joe Short


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